V. S. Dovas
My Predictions!
November, 24
The continous nervousness of the market is not accidental!
It shows how immature and shallow the market still is.
Even presindent Clinton's "Gold Medal" to the Greek
economy did not manage to stir up the waters.
A few weeks ago, statments like this would
have driven the market up at record levels.
But anyway, what are the reasons that keep the market stranded?
Certainly, the increasing oil prices do create inflationary pressures
and new issues and capitalizations squeeze the cash out of the market.
But no matter how important these factors are,they are only
the tip of the iceberg.
The bottom line is that fund managers want to keep the market at
present or even lower levels so they can start the new year from a
level that will give them satisfactory results.
Therefore, increase your liguidity to take advantage of the new opportunities
that will most certainly emerge
in the high techology sector and large cap firms.
December, 20
The direction of the market is definetely downwards.
The psychology on the street is bearish!
Even coordinated efforts like the one on Friday December the
17th (by government institutions and mutual funds)
did not succeed to reverse the free fall of the general index.
Last Monday's session proved to everybody that the market lacks commitment.
If the big players do not commit themselves to increase the weak volume
(and this won't happen until the beginning of the next year)
the market will end the year at current levels.
January, 11
Bumpy Road To Recovery!
After the 1000 point plunge in December, the market is recovering,
but not with the old familiar way.
Investors must learn to adopt to the new enviroment.
The Index we still believe that will reach the 7500 level within the year.
However, January will be a month of short-term positioning,
at least until the end of the month.
Flactuations in the high-tech and medium cap sectors can be very
rewarding during this time of nervousness.
Maintain as much liguidity as you can and wait.
When the daily volume starts to increase,
that will be the time to take medium to long term positions.
January, 28
If the Americans take the credit for using two animals
to indicate the ups and downs of the market,
it is left to us to bring another one to join the club!
So we decided to bring along the Australian koala!
Because this little creature, although not a native of Greece,
can best describe what is going on in the Greek market today.
Like the koala, when "stoned" from chewing the eucalyptus leaves
and staring aimlessly to nowhere, the same our market remains indifferent
to any news, whether it is drachma revaluation or dropping of the interest rates.
What will it take to get the market going?
Let's try for starters to take out of it's (koala/market) mouth the eucalyptus leaves!
In other words, let us not be concerned about the election date
and the market should worry only about the "perfect" economic news.
If the market is left alone it will correct it's own imperfections
and head for the predicted goal of around 7000 points!
Vassilis S. Dovas
Was born in Ioannina, Greece in 1962
He studied Physics and Business Administration
in N.Y., U.S.A.
Since early 1999 he is a junior partner and market analyst
in ISHIS S.A. ( A.E.L.D.E. ) brokerage firm.
Disclaimer:
Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.
This document is distributed solely for information purposes.
It does not constitute, or form part of, any offer to sell,
or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities
nor shall it,or any part of it,
form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever.
The projections and predictions expressed in this document are entirely those
of V. S. Dovas, have nothing to do with ISHIS S.A. ( A.E.L.D.E. )
and are subject to change without notice.