I. E. C. Haramis:
(From September 16, 1999 to February 5, 2000)
For The More Recent Ones... Click Me!
The market is over inflated!!!
I believe that the ASE index will close the year around 5000 - 5250.
In the remaining 58 days until the end of 1999,
I expect fluctuations in the range of 4800 - 5900,
which will provide opportunities for short term gains.
In the upcoming year, the large cap companies will take over and
by the end of spring, I expect the market to reach up to the 8000 level.
My bottom line advice:
Increase your liquidity and wait for the correct opportunity
(below 5000) to restructure your portfolio.
Couple of years from now it will definately seem foolish,
this end-of-the-millenium "gold rush".
We will look back and see housewives using all their
"cookie-jar" available cash into stocks.
We will see taxi-drivers day trading!
We will see the dawn of the age that people were expecting to make
an easy and fast fortune out of the markets.
Is it crazy? or Excessive?
For when we do look back, we will realize that we were
witness to an excessive revolution, a revolution that created
money making aspirations out of thin air!
Frenzied momentum investing and day trading!
The truth is, few of us have the expertise required to pick winners!
It may work for a while!
But in the end it's too risky, too easy to get caught when the bubble bursts.
But let's face it, most of those house wives and taxi drivers,
would be better off sticking to their cooking and driving.
The price of oil is up...
Inflation is a bit up...
Available cash is drained from new IPO's and Capital increases.
Fund managers are looking over their portfolios and trying
to figure out their upcoming year strategy.
Take your profits...
Load your guns!
And wait for prices to decline!
OK! ... we had our small decline! ... did you buy?
Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th will be the best selling days!
I expect the index to hit the 5650 level.
This will be your last chance of the year to make some serious profit taking!
Sell and start buying again when the index hits the 5000 level.
Fine! ... did you cash out?
Now ... be wise!
You want to "buy high, and sell higher"?
You will usually have more room to lose money!
Do not buy a stock near its highs and hope that it will appreciate even farther.
It's not always the case, but stocks that are priced high and overvalued
usually experience sharper declines than those that are undervalued.
As an investor, we encourage you to keep your mind off short-term trends and
invest for the long-term. Trends come and go but real investors keep
focused on their long-term goals without having to worry about what might
happen the following day in the stock market.
(I have to remind you to scroll up and read again the November, 2 article!)
Today - once again - we did witness one more "mad" session
that created a plethora of new "limit-up(s)"!
Why did you offer your hard earned cash?
You thought that all prices were too good to miss?
Read again and try to understand the December, 18 article!
Take your time, wait and try to figure out the shares that deserve the 8s!
Be cautious, don't believe anything!
In general, when deciding what information and opinions to rely on,
listen to what they recommend, ask why and do investigate!
Knowledge is your best defense!
Didn't I Warn You?
Now ... don't tell me that I didn't ask you to take your time!
Just wait a bit longer ...
You will not "miss the train"!
I hope that you did wait and didn't waste your capital!
Starting from Friday the 7th begin your selective acquisitions.
On Friday use only up to the 40% of your available cash.
Use it on selected high technology and construction companies.
(And I do mean selected!)
Use your cash well ... and please, do fasten your seat belts!
You want to know why and how you should invest
in high technology and construction stocks?
Despite the market's fast pace during the last 2 years,
the opportunities to find value abound!
The marriage of computing, telecommunications and construction is exerting
a positive influence on any number of industries.
And the opening of global markets is providing unequaled economic opportunity.
On the other hand, growth very often begets extreme volatility,
making the markets treacherous for short-term investors.
But, relying on relative value and long-term holdings,
will definately turn volatility to your advantage.
The key is to choose the industries with the most promising long-term outlook
( telecommunications, software, networking, pharmaceuticals,
construction and finance, to name a few )
and seek out the optimal value within them.
...To My Friend The Engineer!
Trading for a living is no doubt the goal and burning aspiration of nearly
every novice market player who experiences his first winning trade!
and the potentially enormous financial rewards
are but a few of the realities which capture their imaginations
and infiltrate their dreams!
But despite this almost universal desire,
never even come close to the point of being a professional!
In fact, the majority of aspiring traders/investors never even
come close to being average market players!
And while there are numerous reasons for their failure,
the three primary causes are:
lack of a disciplined approach, experience and
the absence of an experienced professional,
who is willing to reveal winning techniques and how to implement them!
Please, read this and come back for the rest!
...Fine! ...I expect that you got the message!
Excellent! From now on, do examine everything and I do mean everything!
Now that the market is searching to find its way (call it: volume)
-- by the way, we do expect the market to pick up around the 25th --
and relentlessly calls into question virtually every stock in your portfolio,
even the most independent-minded investor can start doubting himself.
You wonder, did I make the right decisions when I bought these stocks?
Or, is it wise to buy the X stock?
To answer yourself in any rational fashion, you need to be able to judge
whether circumstances, not just psychology, have changed for your holdings.
In times like these, strong fundamental analysis becomes key to your convictions.
Where will the market head for?
Everybody is entitled to his own prediction!
At least, I do stick to my previous ones
--and this has nothing to do with some of my friends
that falsely insist on calling me "Guru".
My predictions, yours, and your pet's...
all have the same chance of coming true!
he ... he ... he!!!
On the other hand, I'm going to let you into a "well known" tiny "secret".
If I definately knew what the market was going to do
next day, week, month, or next year,
I wouldn't share it with you!
I would place everything I own into options and then... fly away!
You would never hear from me again!
I wouldn't even finish my book!
I would be history! ... A well remembered one (I hope)!
Now... Why do I say that?
You are smart! ... read me ... and you will understand!
Market statistics are like a bikini,
what they reveal is important,
what they conceal is vital!
Can you see the bubble?
Today, the economy is enjoying robust growth
and the inflation has fallen to a 30-year low.
Sorry to be a party-pooper,
but to me the market still looks horribly bubble-like!
The climb in prices over the past year proves neither that the market is
correctly valued nor that the bubble is in my imagination.
The bigger a bubble gets,
the greater the excesses it creates
and the bigger the bang when it eventually pops!
Trapped by the bubble,
the Government's space for manoeuvres is limited!
Perhaps they will let the market slide slowly downwards,
letting air gently out of the bubble.
If the Government does nothing (call it elections!),
they run the risk that, when the market does eventually fall,
inflation will be rising and the Drachmae falling,
making it harder to ease monetary policy to offset the effects of a crash!
At any rate, I do stick to my previous predictions:
(November, 2 - January, 8 )
January, 27 - (Part One)
When I ask "New Investors" traditional questions about valuations and risks
and earnings, they donít know the answers!
And they donít care that they donít know!!!
They are used to being rewarded for taking big risks
without the burden of knowing a lot of facts.
I am amused by the stories I sometimes hear of online investors,
who trade from their keyboards without ever talking to a broker,
so eager to place their buy orders that they use the wrong ticker symbols
and wind up buying stocks they have never heard of!
January, 27 - (Part Two)
...To my "DELPHI" friends!
Most of the speculators are guided by charts or
other "mechanical" means of determining the right moments to buy and/or sell.
The only principle that applies to nearly all these so-called "technical approaches"
is that you buy because a stock or the market has gone up
or you sell because it has declined.
This is the exact opposite of sound business sense
and it will never lead to lasting success!
In my own experience - almost 30 years long -
I have not yet known a person who has consistently or lastingly
made money by following the market in that way!
I do say that this approach is as wrong as it is popular!
Patience is a virtue!
...You shall be rewarded!!!
...You did it again!
The market will eventually hit the 8000 mark!
(see November, 2)
But, please take it easy!
Take a closer look at the "small" market details.
Look at the market Caps.
Don't keep on doing the same mistakes over and over again!
The big players are watching over you!
Believe you me! ...They are hungry!
Now, please read again my January, 25 article
and also take a good mental note of the following:
The Fed by hiking the interest rates,
until they take a more dramatic action(?),
- on March, 21 -
they will be chasing the overheated economy,
speculation and boiling inflation pressures!
For The More Recent Ones... Click Me!
Ioannis - Evangelos (Akis) C. Haramis
Was born in Athens, Greece in 1951.
He studied Business Administration, Marketing and Economics
in Chicago, ILL and Boulder, CO (USA)
as well as in Leuven, Belgium.
Since early 1999 he is the major shareholder
and CEO of ISHIS S.A. ( A.E.L.D.E. ) brokerage firm.
Back to the First Page
Open An Account With Us
Get In Touch With Us Send Us Your Questions and/or Comments
Back to the First Page Open An Account With Us
Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.
These documents are distributed solely for information purposes.
They do not constitute, or form part of, any offer to sell,
or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities nor shall they,
or any part of them, form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever.
Projections and opinions expressed in these documents
are entirely those of I. E. C. Hraramis,
constitute his personal opinions,
are set forth for informational purposes only,
are subject to any changes without notice
and do not constitute the recommendations of
ISHIS S.A. ( A.E.L.D.E. )